But the electoral blowback at the time looked serious. I’ll always remember the incredulity in Van Hollen’s voice: “Now we have to defend Raul Grijalva’s district?” Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who represented a reliably blue district, had endorsed a boycott of his home state to protest a state law that harmed immigrants. Grijalva’s position was noble, courageous. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) when he chaired the DCCC in the miserable 2010 cycle. A candidate’s utterances can turn safe districts into more competitive ones. For example, I remember sitting with Sen. I used to call it a “flip-flop” scenario. A favorable wind at your back dictates a strategy of offense, and the battlefield is expanded to flip more seats. In a “flop” environment, with strong headwinds, you hunker down to save as many incumbents as you can. The battlefield is consolidated, resources triaged to minimize losses. You’re simultaneously praised and pilloried your reputation is celebrated and cremated.īut this cycle is particularly difficult to manage. Here’s why.įirst, both campaign committees basically plan as political meteorologists, making decisions by those prevailing winds. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.).Īs one who held the DCCC chair from 2011 to 2016, I’ve watched both manage the environment with fascination. I can tell you that the job places you in a schizophrenic world. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), and the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), Rep. Wade, falling gas prices, GOP primaries that produced Trumpian candidates in moderate electorates, legislative victories like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS bill.Īt the center of this particular playoff are two quarterbacks, the chairmen of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Rep. Most midterm cycles are easily defined by the political winds. This one is all about wind shears. As Wasserman notes, the climate has been changed by a variety of influences: the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling undermining Roe v. We are in a world of contradictions. Predictable and volatile at the same time.
Going into the summer, some forecasts had Democrats losing as many three-dozen seats. Coming out of summer, David Wasserman, the unusually prescient analyst from the Cook Political Report, wrote (correctly, in my view): “GOP Control No Longer a Foregone Conclusion.”
0 kommentar(er)
